© Kristin Nymark Heggland / Arctic Council Secretariat

An archipelago in transformation: Climate scientist Ketil Isaksen on record-breaking changes on Svalbard

November 6, 2024

Ketil Isaksen is a senior scientist at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. He has been to Svalbard regularly throughout his career – latest this summer, which was another record-breaking one. In this brief interview Ketil Isaksen speaks about the changes he has observed and monitored over the past three decades, what the future might hold for Svalbard and which action is needed to reach the best possible future scenario for the archipelago.

Could you speak about the changes you have witnessed on Svalbard over the past decades?

Back in the mid-90s, when I arrived in Svalbard as a student, I was just starting to explore the cryosphere and permafrost. I never thought that three decades later, I’d witness such significant transformations. It’s striking to observe these changes, whether through our ongoing long-term monitoring or just by looking at how the landscape changes due to the thawing permafrost and the melting of ice and snow.

August 2024 marked the third record-breaking summer on Svalbard. Could you tell us more about these latest records and their causes?

The summer of 2024 was truly remarkable. At Svalbard Airport, we have weather data dating back to 1899, and this year, the summer temperature reached 8.5 degrees. That’s a significant increase of 0.8 degrees compared to last year’s record and 1.1 degrees higher than the third hottest summer in 2022. It’s unprecedented for us to see three consecutive years with new seasonal records.

How do these temperature changes affect the daily life for people living in Longyearbyen?

In the summertime, people often wear lighter clothing when they spend time outdoors. If you're off on a hike or trip that lasts several days, you can't take for granted that the fresh food in your backpack will hold up. The refrigerator-like temperatures that used to be common in Svalbard during summer are a thing of the past.

This 10-degree threshold is crucial as it distinguishes the polar climate from the cold-temperate climate, so surpassing it for two years in a row is quite concerning. Ketil Isaksen

Twice this summer Svalbard passed the 10-degree average limit which defines Arctic climate. Do we need to rethink what is Arctic or is the definition of the Arctic itself changing?

It’s a good question! August 2024 was particularly striking, with August temperature hitting 11 degrees at Svalbard Airport, which is an astonishing 2.6 degrees above the previous record set in 2023, another extreme year. Alongside 2023, this marks only the second time since we started measuring in Svalbard that we’ve had summers where the monthly temperature exceeds 10 degrees. This 10-degree threshold is crucial as it distinguishes the polar climate from the cold-temperate climate, so surpassing it for two years in a row is quite concerning.

You and your colleagues recently released a report, Svalbard 2100. In a nutshell, what do you envision the archipelago to be like in 75 years?

In 75 years, Svalbard will likely experience significant changes due to climate change. Air temperatures are projected to continue to increase significantly, leading to increased precipitation, more intense rainfall events, and greater river flows. This could lead to increased flooding and erosion. The snow season will become shorter, and near-surface permafrost in coastal and low altitude areas is projected to thaw. Avalanches and landslides may become more frequent, and the landscape will change dramatically as glaciers lose mass and area. Together with warmer ocean and nearly absent sea ice in far larger areas, these changes will profoundly affect the ecosystem and human activities in the archipelago and Barents region.

Raising awareness about climate change and its impacts on Svalbard can help to garner support for mitigation and adaptation efforts. It can also help to ensure that those living in, or visiting, the area are aware of the risks and can take appropriate action. Ketil Isaksen

What is the best possible future scenario for Svalbard and what needs to be done to reach it?

This would involve minimizing the impacts of climate change. The world must drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions with a rapid shift towards renewable energy sources, more energy-efficient technologies, and changes in consumption patterns. Locally, further plans should be put in place to mitigate the impact of climate change. This could include measures to manage increased risks from natural hazards and floods, reinforce infrastructure to withstand the effects of thawing permafrost, and protect biodiversity.

Continued research and monitoring of the changing climate and its effects on Svalbard are crucial. This will help us to understand the changes that are occurring and to develop effective strategies to manage them. Raising awareness about climate change and its impacts on Svalbard can help to garner support for mitigation and adaptation efforts. It can also help to ensure that those living in, or visiting, the area are aware of the risks and can take appropriate action.